stormcarib.comCaribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Car
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Title:Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Car
Description:stormCARIB presents in depth information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical storms and hurricanes threatening the Caribbean islands. Special local hurricane correspondents are standing by on the islands and will provide timely eye-witness reports and updates.
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Caribbean Hurricane Network - Updates from the Islands - | home | satellite | tools | pleas for help | guide | climatology | archive | 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred | Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Depression Eleven Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30 GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (12:30 UTC , 21 minutes ago) Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [ more satellite imagery ]. See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available) Eleven tools: distance | closest point | advisories | 3 / 5 day cone | models | image and loop | mySat 95L Invest: satellite images (Navy/NRL) | model track: sfwmd.gov -or- ral.ucar.edu (+ intensity ) Monday, August 10, 2020 20:28PM EDT - 95L Plus Good evening, Currently, we have a break in the activity in the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean as we have had a breakneck open to the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Already, the next name on the list is Josephine. Yes, a J letter. In August possibly. If it happens before Aug. 22, it will be the earliest J named tropical system. If I recall correctly, 2005 was the earliest when we reached the Greek alphabet, having run out of the season's English names for storms. I hope they come up with a Plan B set of say 5 names instead of resigning to the Greek alphabet as they do not change. Ex 94L: Still a swirl and not going anywhere fast but on satellite, it's appearance is noted. This should not be of any consequence. 95L. Located approx 10N 33W, it has the attention of the NHC as the next candidate for development, vanguard of what lies ahead coming off the coast of Africa. Given a current 60% chance within the next 5 days, the northern Leewards could be in for a strong wave, a TD, or a TS. Hurricane chances are slim by the time it reaches or goes north of the islands as dry air courtesy of the Saharan Dust level making for low relative humidity levels and a bit of increased wind shear should forestall hurricane chances. However, after that it could be a different story. The wave ahead of 95L will bring some stormy weather but it's potential to develop is negligible at this time. Looking behind 95L, there are some robust waves crossing the African continent and will continue to retain their robustness through mid October. 61% of the actual official hurricane season is still ahead. However, the next 8.5 weeks are the historically most active. With the several scientific prognosis outlooks, CSU, NOAA, and others having been released, it's noted all have raised the Atlantic and Caribbean stakes. This does not mean it will be that way, but it does mean they are basing these prognosises on history and the science at hand. SST's are warmer. a weak La Nina exists in the East Pacific, wind shear is unusually weak, the steering mechanism Bermuda high is farther west and south increasing the likelihood of Caribbean and Lower 48 impacts, a CCKW (convectively-connected Kelvin wave which has sinking air ahead and rising air behind) plus the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) which circles the globe every 30-60 days and will arrive in the Atlantic Basin in say 10-14 days, are all expected to lead to tropical mayhem in the months ahead. History does repeat itself including Mother Nature. Been proven. Over and over. So, with that said, my advice repeats itself continues. It only takes one. The pandemic is rough. You get a landfalling tropical system and it will only add to the misery. Be prepared and be safe. Do not wait till you have to stand in a long 5 hour line for a tankful of gas, provisions, batteries, etc... Dave Virus-free. www.avg.com Monday, August 10, 2020 13:45PM PDT - 95L A tropical wave about 1900 miles east of the islands is showing a medium chance (60%) to become a tropical depression and maybe later tropical storm Josephine. Currently it is not that organized, but conditions further down are reasonably ok for slow development. Moving west/northwest at 15mph it is still 4-5 days from the islands. Most likely it will just cross north of the islands (see GFS ensemble image below from weathernerds.org or spaghetti plots above in the tools section). At that time it might have reached tropical storm strength, it is unlikely to become a hurricane before it reaches the islands. Still of course worth keeping an eye on. -Gert - - - GFS Ensemble Forecast (August 10-15) - - - Thursday, August 6, 2020 11:37AM PDT - August Isaias is gone, and other than a tropical wave not much going on. It is already August, so let's see where we should look now for storm formation... The plot below taken from the climatology section shows storm origins over the last 76 years. It is color coded by how strong the storm became. Blue stars mean that it stayed 'just' a tropical storm, orange, red and pink stars became major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 and 5, resp.). We can clearly see that most storms are now forming in the Atlantic since it has warmed up sufficiently. Not good for us. It is "Cape Verde" season, with many storms forming just off the African coast. Of all storms forming this month, traditionally 44% are just tropical storms, and about 1 in 4 will become a major hurricane... So, if you haven't, now is a good time to check if you are prepared for the storm. Are your storm shutters in order? Do you have an emergency food supply? Batteries? Are your power banks (portable batteries to charge your phone) charged? Etc..., stay safe everyone and wear your masks if your government 'advises' you to do so. Also, Klotzbach et al. of Colorado State just updated their hurricane forecast (see their website ). Not surprisingly they upped their forecast. Things to blame: above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, below normal vertical wind shear, and a possible weak La Nina. Total storms expected: 24 (12 is normal, 15 more storms this season). Hurricanes: 12 (normal is 6.4, 10 more to go...). Major hurricanes: 5 (2.7 is normal, 5 more to go...). Chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area): 63% (42% is average). It we would reach 24 storms than it would be the second busiest season 'ever'. Leading the chart is 2005 with 28 named storms (a year where we ran out of names, and dipped in the Greek alphabet). That was the year of Katrina, but a year of relative calm for us. -Gert - - - Storm Origins August 1944-2019 - - - ... Older discussions >> Current Tropical Weather Outlook ( NHC/TPC ): en Español Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC) NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven , located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Beven More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image - - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - - Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents . storm CARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations - Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean - stormCARIB is hosted at and supported by pair Networks Support stormCARIB -- Donations needed -- Latest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands: - Grenada [Aug 12 8:42] - St.Croix [Aug 11 23:59] - Nevis [Aug 11 9:16] - Antigua [Aug 9 11:21] - Barbados [Aug 7 9:06] - Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 5 20:27] - St.Thomas [Aug 4 13:57] ...
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