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ibbean Islands Caribbean Hurricane Network - Updates from the Islands - | home | satellite | tools | pleas for help | guide | climatology | archive | 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Francine | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Milton | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William | Active Tropical Systems: None! Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30 GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (16:50 UTC , 11 minutes ago) Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [ more satellite imagery ]. See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available) Monday, April 8, 2024 10:18AM PDT - Another ’hyper-active’ forecast Tropical Storm Risk , recently absorbed by EuroTempest, a European storm and weather risk management services to the (re)insurance market, has issued their forecast for the upcoming season. It is exactly the same in number of storms as the one by Klotzbach et al’s (see earlier post). They also call for a ’hyper-active’ season with 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. They say: "The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for a hyper-active season is our expectation that the warm sea surface temperature anomalies currently present in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) and Caribbean Sea will persist through August-September 2024, and a moderate strength La Nina event will develop through spring/early summer and persist through summer and autumn.". Indeed, high water temperatures and La Nina conditions means bad news for us. Read the full report here . Another ’hint’ to start preparing now! In reality there is still a relatively small chance that a ’big one’ will end up on your doorstep (see the table in my earlier post), so don’t get too worked up about these forecasts. But you will feel better if you are well prepared. This might be a good year to invest in those hurricane shutters, if you don’t have them already... -Gert Thursday, April 4, 2024 10:15AM PDT - Extremely Active Hurricane Season forecasted... Today Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued there well respected forecast for the upcoming season. And it is not looking good... This may come as no surprise, since last year we had the battle between El Nino, which decreases hurricane activity, and warm sea surface waters, which increases hurricane activity. El Nino lost... This year we won’t have an El Nino, but La Nina conditions, which normally enhances hurricane activity, plus the record warm sea surface temperatures are still here! The forecast calls for 23 (!) named stormes (14.4 is normal), of which 11 are expected to reach hurricane strength (7.2 is normal) and 5 reach major hurricanes status (3.2 is normal). This is the highest number of storms ever forecasted by Colorado State in April... The major drivers are La Nina and high sea surface temperatures. Although we are still in an El Nino, it is expected to fade in the next few weeks, and transform to La Nina conditions at the peak of hurricane season. During a La Nina vertical wind shear is lower in the Atlantic, making it easier for tropical storms to develop and become stronger. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently at record levels, see for example the last plot on the my satellite imagery page (yellow/orange means above normal, it looks like 1-2° Celcius or more above normal!). And it is expected to stay above normal, giving more fuel to hurricanes... Normally the April forecast doesn’t have much skill, but this year they are more confident that there will indeed be an active season. It is hard to argue otherwise, with record sea surface temperatures and an La Nino, two of the main drivers in hurricane activity... What does it mean for the Caribbean... For the Caribbean region the probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the region (a big area) is 66% (normal is 47%, last year it was 49%). In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html ). Note that some of the numbers are biased by area, for example The Bahamas. In any case, just one big storm in your backyard is more than enough. It seems that this is the season that you invest in some good hurricane protection.... Preparation will be key this season. A good writeup can also be found on Jeff Masters’ Eye on the Storm blog at Yale Climate Connections . It does not really make you happy reading it... -Gert Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles ... Older discussionsCurrent Tropical Weather Outlook ( NHC/TPC ): en Español Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC) NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected. No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg/Brown More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image - - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - - Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents . storm CARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations - Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean - stormCARIB is hosted at and supported by pair Networks Support stormCARIBDonations neededLatest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands: - St.Thomas [May 13 13:17] - St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 8 13:42] - Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 8 5:59] - Barbados [May 5 18:06] - Nevis [May 1 5:37] Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years. Links to excellent websites: - Navy/NRL Monterey - NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops) - RAMSDIS Imagery - Radar Composite - E-Carib. - Caribbean/Atl. buoy data - RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR) - STORM2K forum - Tracking Waves (McNoldy) - Tang/UAlbany (model tracks) - tropicaltidbits.com - weathernerds.org (ensembles) - CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad - Brammer/UAlbany - ECMWF Model Forecast - Jeff Masters Blog - Brian McNoldy Blog - Michael Lowry’s Blog - zoom.earth hurricane tracker - more... Storm definitions by wind speed: - Tropical Depression 39mph - Tropical Storm 39-73mph - Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph - Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph - Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph - Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph - Cat.5 Hurricane =157mph More info in the Practical Guide Wind force relative to Category 1: - Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x - Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x - Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x - Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x - Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x - Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x - Irma 185mph: 6.3x - - - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - - The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on...